Analysis of badger culling on bTB in cattle in high-risk areas of
England
Journal
Vet Record - First published: 18 March 2022
https://doi.org/10.1002/vetr.1384
Authors
Thomas E. S. Langton, Mark
W. Jones, Iain
McGill
Abstract
Background
Since 2013, badger culling has been
part of the UK Government's strategy for controlling bovine tuberculosis
(bTB) within a high-risk area (HRA) in England. Government surveillance
data now enables an examination of bTB herd incidence and prevalence, its
headline indicators, within and outside cull areas over the period
2009–2020.
Methods
Analysis compared herd incidence and prevalence
data from within and outside badger culling areas. A range of models (GLMs,
GLMMs, GAMs and GAMMs) were used to analyse incidence and prevalence in culled
and unculled areas using frequentist and Bayesian approaches. Change in
incidence across ten county areas within the HRA for the period 2010–2020 was
also compared.
Results
Analyses based on Defra published data using a
variety of statistical methodologies did not suggest that badger culling
affected herd bTB incidence or prevalence over the study period. In 9 of 10
counties, bTB incidence peaked and began to fall before badger culling
commenced.
Limitations
There are limitations around the data
available on culling location, temporal information and other confounding
factors. As such, further analysis of any future datasets that may be released
on bTB levels in areas where badger culling has been implemented is warranted.
Conclusion
This examination of government data obtained
over a wide area and a long time period failed to identify a meaningful effect
of badger culling on bTB in English cattle herds. These findings may have
implications for the use of badger culling in current and future bTB control
policy.
Keywords
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